COLOMBIAN STOCKS LEAD WORLD IN FIRST QUARTER ON
URIBE CRACKDOWN ON REBELS
Bloomberg, 31 march.- Colombia's stock market has become the best performer
in the world this year as President Alvaro Uribe's crackdown on a rebel
insurgency has helped lure investment and spur the fastest economic growth
since 1995.
The Colombian Stock Exchange Index has risen 46 percent in U.S dollar
terms, the biggest gain among 59 benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg
News worldwide. The next best performers are the Russian Trading System
Index and Peru's IGVBL index, with gains of 30 percent and 23 percent,
respectively.
``Colombia is not a stock-picking market at the moment; it's a country-wide
play,'' said John Ditierri, who helps manage about $9 billion in emerging-market
equities at Emerging Markets Investors Corp., an Arlington, Virginia-based
firm. ``Uribe is doing the right thing.''
Companies such as Bancolombia SA and Suramericana de Inversiones SA,
the index's two most valuable members, have benefited from falling inflation
and interest rates along with the accelerating economy.
This year's performance is a turnaround from last year, when Colombia
was South America's worst performer. The benchmark rose 46 percent in
dollar terms as Argentina's Merval, Brazil's Bovespa and Venezuela's
General Index all more than doubled.
Positive Sentiment'
Share trading in Bogota, the home of the country's stock exchange, has
surged to $7 million a day from about $500,000 a year ago.
Domestic investors seeking to boost returns after yields on treasury
bills fell to historic lows are driving the rally, said Santiago Isaza,
an analyst at Medellin, Colombia-based Suvalor SA, the nation's largest
brokerage.
``We see very positive sentiment from national investors who believe
in the economic reactivation of the country and that growth will continue
to be strong this year,'' Isaza said. ``Domestic investors show more
confidence than foreign investors.''
Investment in Colombian stocks from outside the country rose 7 percent,
to $246 million, in January. Foreign investment in Colombian peso-denominated
bonds climbed more than fivefold to $141 million, the stock exchange
regulator said.
The government last week sold bonds due in May 2005 at a yield of 8.79
percent, the lowest ever at a debt auction.
Taking Control
Uribe, 51, took office in August 2002. He has bolstered confidence with
an offensive against a four-decade insurgency by guerrillas seeking to
topple the state, as well as paramilitary groups that protect businessmen
and drug traffickers.
Security forces captured 67 middle- and high-ranking guerrilla leaders
last year, according to the government. His administration has taken
control of 157 of the country's 1,100 counties from armed groups. Attacks
on towns plunged 84 percent and the murder rate fell 20 percent in 2003,
according to the National Planning Department. Kidnappings dropped 26
percent.
The economy expanded 3.6 percent last year, and government reports point
toward further growth this year. Retail sales in January rose 8.9 percent
from a year earlier, the fastest pace in a decade, according to the national
statistics agency.
Colombia's annual inflation rate was 6.3 percent for the 12 months through
February and may be below 10 percent for a sixth consecutive year, according
to the government.
Uribe has kept government spending in check. Colombia's budget deficit
narrowed to 2.8 percent of gross domestic product last year from 3.6
percent the year before, and the government has forecast it will cut
this year's gap to 2.5 percent of GDP.
Cocaine Legacy
Drug-related crime is also a deterrent, said Edward Bozaan, who manages
$20 million for the Waterford Partners hedge fund in New York and holds
Bancolombia shares.
Colombia is the world's largest producer of cocaine, supplying about
90 percent of the drug that enters the U.S., and a major source of heroin,
according to the White House Office of Drug Control Policy.
Businesses in Colombia paid $1 billion in extortion and ransom payments
to insurgents and criminals between 1995 and 2002, according to the country's
government.
The U.S. has spent $2.8 billion since 2000 to attack the drug trade
and its funding of illegal armed groups. Cultivation of coca, the raw
ingredient of cocaine, has declined 21 percent from late 2002, figures
compiled by the White House show.
``There is still the legacy of drug trafficking and money laundering,''
Ditierri said. ``But if things continue as they are now, there will be
a lot more attention'' to Colombia's stock market.
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